Predict

set

prophet default settings

• 初期設定のまま
• 週周期, 年周期を含む

prophetによる予測

ans1 <- Prophet(train,"阿寒摩周国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -93.8497
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans2 <- Prophet(train,"十和田八幡平国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -163.803
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans3 <- Prophet(train,"日光国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -111.034
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans4 <- Prophet(train,"伊勢志摩国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -58.6484
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: absolute parameter change was below tolerance

ans5 <- Prophet(train,"大山隠岐国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -106.108
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans6 <- Prophet(train,"阿蘇くじゅう国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -118.9
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans7 <- Prophet(train,"霧島錦江湾国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -56.9899
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans8 <- Prophet(train,"慶良間諸島国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -27.1885
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

可視化

• 要因ごとの可視化, 予測値と実測値の可視化

## 要素ごとの可視化
Plot_prophet_components(ans1)

Plot_prophet_components(ans2)

Plot_prophet_components(ans3)

Plot_prophet_components(ans4)

Plot_prophet_components(ans5)

Plot_prophet_components(ans6)

Plot_prophet_components(ans7)

Plot_prophet_components(ans8)

## 予測値と実測値
Plot_prophet_predict(ans1,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans2,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans3,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans4,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans5,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans6,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans7,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans8,train)

精度(MeanAbsoluteError)

MeanAbsoluteError(ans1,train)

[1] "公園名: 阿寒摩周国立公園 MAE: 1260.20017782082"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans2,train)

[1] "公園名: 十和田八幡平国立公園 MAE: 2921.47780520123"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans3,train)

[1] "公園名: 日光国立公園 MAE: 3999.97680327707"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans4,train)

[1] "公園名: 伊勢志摩国立公園 MAE: 4786.99186674023"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans5,train)

[1] "公園名: 大山隠岐国立公園 MAE: 386.703788349664"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans6,train)

[1] "公園名: 阿蘇くじゅう国立公園 MAE: 179.11470562124"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans7,train)

[1] "公園名: 霧島錦江湾国立公園 MAE: 3058.17230113208"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans8,train)

[1] "公園名: 慶良間諸島国立公園 MAE: 108.905497584473"

prophet log settings

• 観測値にlog1p変換(0が存在するため)
• 出力値にexpm1変換

prophetによる予測

ans1 <- Log_prophet(train,"阿寒摩周国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -9.01987
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans2 <- Log_prophet(train,"十和田八幡平国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -12.0935
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans3 <- Log_prophet(train,"日光国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -11.0914
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans4 <- Log_prophet(train,"伊勢志摩国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -7.66908
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans5 <- Log_prophet(train,"大山隠岐国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -29.3612
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans6 <- Log_prophet(train,"阿蘇くじゅう国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -66.9419
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans7 <- Log_prophet(train,"霧島錦江湾国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -4.91469
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

ans8 <- Log_prophet(train,"慶良間諸島国立公園")

Initial log joint probability = -75.3876
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

可視化

• 要因ごとの可視化, 予測値と実測値の可視化

## 要素ごとの可視化
Plot_prophet_components(ans1)

Plot_prophet_components(ans2)

Plot_prophet_components(ans3)

Plot_prophet_components(ans4)

Plot_prophet_components(ans5)

Plot_prophet_components(ans6)

Plot_prophet_components(ans7)

Plot_prophet_components(ans8)

## 予測値と実測値
Plot_prophet_predict(ans1,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans2,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans3,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans4,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans5,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans6,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans7,train)

Plot_prophet_predict(ans8,train)

MeanAbsoluteError

MeanAbsoluteError(ans1,train)

[1] "公園名: 阿寒摩周国立公園 MAE: 1180.47480892041"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans2,train)

[1] "公園名: 十和田八幡平国立公園 MAE: 2593.97919127001"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans3,train)

[1] "公園名: 日光国立公園 MAE: 3360.26787050973"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans4,train)

[1] "公園名: 伊勢志摩国立公園 MAE: 4470.02362535271"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans5,train)

[1] "公園名: 大山隠岐国立公園 MAE: 370.596155168093"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans6,train)

[1] "公園名: 阿蘇くじゅう国立公園 MAE: 176.292556120254"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans7,train)

[1] "公園名: 霧島錦江湾国立公園 MAE: 2959.57162169816"

MeanAbsoluteError(ans8,train)

[1] "公園名: 慶良間諸島国立公園 MAE: 102.655772194272"